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Monday, June 2, 2014

Mon Jun 2nd - Where are all the Traders?

GBPUSD 30m view was that the move up for the last 4 hours was a test of yesterday's highs. The last 4 bars were showing a struggle at around a 50% retracement at 1.6760. 5m shows the steep drop at LDN Open indicating an entry was approaching.  From 3:20-3:40pm it struggled at the 50% retracement of 1.6760. I shorted in the consolidation looking for a move to the 12pm low. 1m shows the bar I entered on immediately reversed and stopped me out at -4. After some chop the mkt reached up to test 1.6760.

Despite the loss, my short was valid because GBPUSD indicated it was unable to reach the key highs. However, the following chart shows what happened right after they probed the 1.6760 highs. Refer back to the 30m how my view was correct - it was all a test of the previous day's high. However, turning that view into profitable trades can sometimes be difficult. In hindsight it appears I should've given it another shot for the collapse that occurred. To do so I need to know there is an effort to go somewhere, some kind of volatility - a sign of "life". Instead the pace feels as though it meanders around with little purpose.

My job is to find good trades. It is not to trade a lot hoping to catch something. In the past few months I've gone from 5 trades a day to barely 1. It requires tremendous patience to wait on 9 pairs for something displaying the rights match of correlation, pace, Reward:Risk, etc. In the chart above if I had seen a test of the 1.6760 DT I would've tried it again. But the way it rolled over slowly and then picked up speed isn't any indication to me there was volatility worthy of a 2nd shot. It appears it was just a Big Boy rig to probe a few stops right before they slammed it down.

Summary: 1L for -4.