EURCAD - Range Trade

D was in a downtrend, but in a range with traps above and below.
240 shows the range. I was keying off of the blast up on Friday. After that it consolidated at the highs for 2 days and suggested a breakout could occur.
60 pb to 50% with a vol increase.
5 made a reversal with test flag. I bought the resistance break and saw the mkt quickly advance.

60 shows I targeted the trap highs.
5 shows vol increasing at the resistance highs.

Despite the ease my trade worked I resisted going for more pips.  That decision saved me because BB slammed EURCAD right after I exited.  60 and 5 make my exit look lucky, but all I was doing was following the plan - enter at support and target the highs. The hard rejection at resistance shown on 240 and D suggests the overall downtrend is regaining control.

Summary: A simple +2R win in a range. Ranges lack the momentum of trends, but are good in their own way as long as I play the boundaries correctly.

EURJPY - Tagged Out Before the Move

D retraced to previous Jan support in 2L. Mkt showed tapering and alternation.
240 shows the detail of L2 as a move with distribution at the top.
60 shows two sets of selling at the top.  My entry was attempted after supp was tested (No D) and then a 50% pb to underside of MAs.
5 showed a 2L pb and then No D.  My entry was taken at 56, but I should've been in 4 bars earlier at about 64.

I was stopped out for -1R right at the top of a violent test up as shown on the 5.  The mkt eventually broke down and is at 4R as shown on the 60.

A trade like this should be given room. It seems foolish to exit at -20 and miss the re-entry when the 1st LH has such huge potential. EJ is uncatchable for an alternate entry (at +6R now). As far as a confluence of factors in favor they don't get much better than this - agreement in all TFs and the large move I was playing for.

AUDUSD - 3 Point Trendline Short

D in overall downtrend. AU rallied up in 2 legs meeting Feb resistance.

240 shows the 2L upmove with tapering at the top. It appeared 3L wasn't a possibility and I opted for a short off the DTL.

60 showed 2 sets of distribution at the 2 previous highs. The high I was entering had a nice probe of the DTL.  5 shows the vol climax followed by the pb to support. There was no demand so entry was taken on a supp brk.

The mkt didn't brk for another 2 hours. Fortunately the tests of the resist trap showed weakness. The drop commenced and after 2L I exited for +1R after the bull pin bar (circled). The bounce was shortlived as my tgt was reached just 20 mins later.

A look at the 60 as AU stands today shows the short looks unreal right off the highs. Rather than a 3 or 4R win I took just 1R - I grabbed at profits due to being affected by all my breakevens this week.

USDJPY - Right Call But Got Shaken Out

D shows UJ as rejecting resist from Dec.  It had already gone down in 2L and I wanted to get short after seeing L2 was larger than L1 i.e. I was expecting L3.
240 shows the FOMC wackiness on Mar 19th left a tail that was fully cleared by L2 down.  All the pb were small displaying how weak UJ was.
60 showed a FOF in the downward MAs, I wanted an entry at around 120.40, but this was all it could muster before the next leg down would come.
5 shows a move to 119.75 which wedged and then broke downside. I was in at 65.

The close proximity to support made it tough to stay with the trade. I ended up exiting at BE as the mkt pin-balled repeatedly. It eventually broke down for the L3 as I expected and v-bottomed.

Considering my entry had a 15 pips stop the mkt went down about 7R - how could I scratch it?  When I see good setups (probability) that also have high R potential I have got to bag them. I believe my issue could come down to old habits making me worry about the trade's success. I must remember I am playing for R-multiples and not a high hit rate.