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Friday, October 24, 2014

Forex Tester

I recently learned of Forex Tester (FT) http://www.forextester.com . Gonna buy it to solidify my method. Of most interest are trades that have lots of favorable elements, but are missed due to waiting for the test. When 3 legs have occurred it doesn't make sense to wait for a test considering the rarity of 4 legged moves. I am interested to see how an entry on a closed 4H bar will perform.

Waiting for a test has some pros:

  • If L4 happens I avoid a stopout
  • It reduces time in a trade
  • I can often gain a better entry which reduces the required stop and allows for a higher R:R trade
  • I can spot a leader pair take off to precisely time my entry in a follower

But of course there are cons:

  • I can miss large moves that blast away once L3 completes which.....
  • wastes the time I planned/stalked                                                                

GBPNZD was in an overall uptrend on D. It pb in 2L and then based sideways for a week. 4H formed a trap and was tested in 3L (as marked). The reversal occurred with a bullish bar closing at 2.0228 signalling a buy and needing a stop at 2.0074 of 154 pips. Some of the biggest moves begin with large reversal bars. I've often seen those as signal bars but I've opted to not enter and wait for a test of the signal bar. Normally I enter with stops 1/5 that size, but if I waited for the test there would not have been an entry here. So far the pair has rallied 328 pips from the signal.


Position sizing makes each trade of equal risk regardless of the initial stop sizes.  I expect the Win % to drop, but since the method makes money thru R:R it shouldn't matter too much. Plus I will participate in more of these runaway moves. What attracts me to entering on closed 4H bars is the simplicity. Knowing I only need to look at the 12pm, 4pm, 8pm and 12am bars helps save time. Pre-mkt Prep will be mainly to update my trap boxes and group views and then my job will be to tune in at bar close time. Using FT should put me a step towards automation.  Although I have yet to be convinced everything can be fully automated I am open to anything that frees up my time.

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